Relevance
Currently, climate scientists worldwide are concerned about global warming trends and associate this phenomenon with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which, in turn, is caused by post-industrial combustion of fossil fuels and energy produced by biomass. In this regard, various programs have become popular to carry out measures either for adapting to climate change or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As part of climate change adaptation, issues are being proactively studied across the globe aimed to assess the vulnerability of the economy and population to climate change. That said, various scenarios of climate change consequences are being studied and worked out including how to adapt to them.
The most powerful tool for studying climate changes and the environmental response are natural isotopes, the distribution of which in various natural compounds is defined by ambient environmental conditions.
One of the important lines is to study the impact of climate change on water resources through isotope hydrology techniques. Climate change affects the sources and distribution of precipitation worldwide leading to changes in surface waters and ground water recharge. To understand how ground water aquifers are recharged and how vulnerable they may be to climate change, a technique is used to measure the ratio of stable isotopes of water (1Н/2Н; 16О/18О).
The planet's soil cover, the geoderm, performs multiple ecological functions in the biosphere. The role of soil in the carbon cycle of the biological chain is crucial, as it forms the bulk of the carbon flux into the environment. One of the most robust techniques for assessing climate change over time is dating based on the use of radioactive and stable carbon isotopes. Soil respiration, an integral part of which is soil CO2-gas exchange, is an essential component of the ecosystem's carbon balance and a powerful, permanent factor in soil formation. Warming accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter, and as temperatures rise, CO2 is increasingly released, which refers to greenhouse gases and, accordingly, contributes to climate changes. A temperature rise also leads to accelerated glacier melting, which in turn leads to a change in glacier-recharged rivers. As a whole, a temperature rise across the planet also results in stability deterioration of the upper polar vortex, whose change in the direction causes abnormally cold winters. Within the scope of this Project, it is planned to apply nuclear, seismic and infrasonic techniques for assessing climate changes and developing recommendations for mitigating the climate changes: using the isotope hydrology technique, water resources will be evaluated; using the carbon dating technique, the undisturbed soils of Kazakhstan's forest ecosystems will be dated, and the analysis of climate changes that occurred over the period they had existed will be carried out. CO2 emissions from background regional soils will be assessed and the impact of climate changes on these emissions determined; based on seismic and infrasonic data, the frequency and spatial distribution of icequakes will be determined, as well as variations in their number over time indicating climate change over the previous decades. This research will provide information on climate changes in the context of the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, their impact on the environment, as well as allow for the development of recommendations for mitigating climate changes.
Program goal – Creation and implementation of a range of technologies and techniques for assessing and mitigating climate changes.
Expectations
Direct outputs:
Outcome:
Expected social and economic effect
The study of the regional climate and continuous monitoring of its changes is one of the priority tasks of Kazakhstan's climate policy. Taking into account the geographical location of Kazakhstan and its vast territory, the observed changes in climatic conditions in various regions of the Republic can have both adverse and positive effects on the economic activity and social sphere. Scientific and methodological approaches will become the basis for analyzing the vulnerability of the economy and the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan to climate change, developing various scenarios of potential risks and threats related to climate change, and taking timely and adequate measures, including the development and dissemination of techniques for sustainable land use and economic sector management. The findings will provide insight into the current state of the problem of climate changes, as well as make a substantial contribution to the general scientific understanding of climate change processes and their impact on the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Expected ecological effect
The research findings will improve the understanding of climate change processes and the determinants of the progression of these processes and will underlie recommendations for mitigating climate changes. The program outputs may be of interest to the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Committee of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Supervision of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Globally, potential consumers are countries that support policies to combat climate change.
As a result of the program implementation, the following outputs will be obtained:
1) Publication of 5 (five) articles and (or) reviews in peer-reviewed scientific editions in the scientific line of the Program included in quartile 1 (one), 2 (two) and (or) 3 (three) by the impact factor in the Web of Science database and (or) having CiteScore percentiles in the Scopus database of at least 50 (fifty).
2) Publication of 7 (seven) articles in journals recommended by KOKNVO.
3) Publication of 1 (one) monograph or a tutorial in foreign and (or) Kazakhstani publishing offices;
4) Obtainment of at least 1 (one) patent in foreign patent bureaus (European, American, Japanese) or at least 1 (one) foreign or international patent included in Derwent Innovations Index database (Web of Science, Clarivate Analytics) or at least 3 (three) intellectual property items registered with the National Institute of Intellectual Property of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
5) Obtainment of at least 1 (one) foreign or international patent included in Derwent Innovation – Clarivate Analytics database.
Main RW outputs
Based upon research undertaken, the following results were obtained for 4 tasks in 2023:
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of precipitation on the quality of strategic water resources based on the analysis of isotope ratios in surface and ground waters’
Based upon the overview of water bodies in the Eastern region of Kazakhstan, it was found that the main waterways in the region being of great strategic importance are the Irtysh river and its major tributaries – the Uba, Ulba, Bukhtarma, Kurchum, Char, Kyzylsu, as well as the Ust-Kamenogorsk (1952) and Bukhtarma (1960) water reservoirs, and the largest lakes – Markakol, Zaisan, Sibinskiye, Maralye, Rakhmanovskoye, Bukhtarminskoye, Ulmes, Karakol, Turangakol, Dubygalinskoye, Kemerkol. The territory of Beskaragai sm, vil. in the Beskaragai area was chosen for a detailed survey with the Ishim-Irtysh ground waters occurring there. This Ishim-Irtysh area in the Eastern region of Kazakhstan is a part of a large marginal artesian basin confined to a narrow depression of the Paleozoic folded basement. In order to obtain source data on the distribution of stable isotopes in the precipitation, determine the content of 2H and 18O in surface and ground waters, and perform a comparative analysis, samples of surface and ground waters, as well as precipitation were collected over the past period.
Task: ‘Study of climate changes by radiocarbon dating’.
With a view to study climate changes using the radiocarbon dating technique based on the analysis of data on the forest fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, survey areas were for soil sampling were identified given climatic, landscape and other natural features. The forest ecosystems of the Beskaragai area of the Abai region and the Burabai area of the Akmola region were selected as survey areas. Soil at selected sites of forest ecosystems was sampled layerwise from the surface of the soil profile at a spacing of 10 cm as deep as 50 cm. The concentration levels of carbon isotopes were determined, whose values were <4 Bq/kg both for the top soil and deeper, as well as soil organic matter, structure, and other physico-chemical properties. It was found that the sum of the exchangeable bases of calcium and magnesium is uniformly distributed over the soil profile varying within 3.6-4.8 mg-eq. per 100 g of soil. The soils of this contour are low-humus and non-saline. The humus content varies from 0.3 to 6.8%. The amount of salts in the aqueous extract does not exceed 0.06%. The profile is free of readily soluble and carbonate salts, and no effervescence by hydrochloric acid was observed in the upper soil horizons.
Task: ‘Quantitative assessment of a carbon flux from the surfaces of regional soils as a result of CO2 gas exchange’.
As part of the upcoming quantitative assessment of carbon flux from the surfaces of regional soils as a result of CO2 gas exchange, reconnaissance research revealed that CO2 gas exchange or ‘soil respiration’ are defined by seasonal weather and climatic conditions of the terrain and the features of the hydrothermal regime of each specific period of the growth season. Research undertaken into CO2 gas exchange in the background dark chestnut soil also revealed a pronounced seasonal dynamics. Among the seasonal environmental constraints determining CO2 gas exchange, a significant correlation relationship was established for the temperature of the top soil.
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of climate change on the regime of icequakes reflecting the process of melting large-scale glaciers in the Tien Shan from seismic and infrasonic data’.
The global and domestic sources were studied on glacier changes under the influence of global warming. It is emphasized that in the last period of research (since the early 21st century), special attention has been paid to geophysical techniques for studying processes in glaciers, in particular, the development of a new line– cryoseismology. The mountain glaciers have been still seismologically understudied. Nowhere else, a remote technique has yet been described for monitoring glacier destruction processes, which is progressing in our study. For the first time ever, a short-term field survey was conducted using a seismic and infrasonic station in the vicinity of the Engilchek glacier. Three places were registered by reconnaissance. The results showed that glacial events were recorded at all points. The sources are localized and are within the glacier. Waveforms have been prepared for the Makanchi and Karatau seismic arrays, as well as for the Makanchi infrasonic array over the entire observation period in respective formats. The data is collected in one place on the Data Center’s server. The progressive multichannel cross-correlation (PMCC) program has been described and mastered for data processing. Waveforms have been visually analyzed. Glacial events have been recorded at the Makanchi and Karatau stations, as well as at the three-component Podgornaya station.
Based upon the findings for 4 tasks in 2024, the following outputs were obtained:
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of precipitation on the quality of strategic water resources from analysis of isotope ratios in surface and ground waters.’
Source data on the distribution of stable isotopes in the local precipitation, upon which a local line of meteoric waters was drawn. The content of 2H and 18O in surface and ground waters determined. A comparative analysis of the findings and the source precipitation data showed that the isotopic composition is different. The isotopic composition of surface waters varies with a season and is characterized by a heavier composition. The isotopic composition of ground waters is the same, a comparative analysis of the findings and the source precipitation data pointed to the similarity in the findings other than one borehole by a site near a house (46 Moldazhanova St.). Annual observations of the air temperature parameters, wind direction and amount of precipitation showed that temperature fluctuates in cold winter months, abnormally warm spring and hot summer dominated by cold winds at the wintertime and warm, south winds in summer months prevailed by winter and spring precipitation and a gradual decrease in its amount at the summertime, which emphasizes specific climatic features of the region.
Task: ‘Study of climate changes by radiocarbon dating’
With a view to study climate changes using the radiocarbon dating technique, the levels of 14C content were determined in the soils of aspen and pine forests of the Beskaragai area of the Abai region and birch and pine forests of the Burabai area of the Akmola region, as well as the physico-chemical properties of forest soils. According to the analysis of the physico-chemical properties of the soil, the distribution of organic matter in the soil profile is descending. The composition of the studied forest ecosystems is dominated by loose and bound sandy soils, as well as slightly loamy soils. The peak concentrations of 14C are mainly recorded in the top soil (0-20 cm) of the forests in the Beskaragai area, which range from 40±6 Bq/kg to 330±50 Bq/kg. The content of this radionuclide in the top soils is driven by the contribution of ‘bomb 14C’, since the research areas are on the fallout plume of a nuclear test conducted in the STS’s territory in 1949.
Task: ‘Quantitative assessment of a carbon flux from the surfaces of regional soils as a result of CO2 gas exchange’.
As part of the upcoming quantitative assessment of the carbon flux from the surfaces of regional soils as a result of CO2 gas exchange, some reconnaissance surveys were conducted and showed that CO2 gas exchange or ‘soil respiration’ is defined by seasonal weather and climatic conditions of the terrain and the features of the hydrothermal regime in each specific growth season. Research into CO2 gas exchange in the background dark chestnut soil also revealed a pronounced seasonal dynamics. Amidst the seasonal environmental constraints determining CO2 gas exchange, a significant correlation relationship was established for the temperature of the top soil.
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of climate change on the regime of icequakes reflecting the melting process of large-scale glaciers in the Tien Shan from seismic and infrasonic data’.
It was proved that icequakes are recordable at considerable distances longer than 500 km from sources suitable for their localization and determination of signal parameters. Infrasonic signals were found to be also recorded at the same distance. The signals were detected based upon the data from seismic and infrasonic stations, and azimuthal diagrams of the detected events were constructed. The analysis of seismic data collected over a long while and heterogeneous in content and recording networks (1951-2017), (2002-2022), (2002-2007), 2024 was carried out. Drawing conclusions was successful about some regularities in a glacier’s seismic activity. A long-term trend was revealed to an increasing number of icequkes over the past decade with significant variations related to the features of climatic conditions in certain years. To that end, the PMCC technique has been implemented into data processing. To clarify the nature of the recorded cryosphere sources, a variety of waveforms of different events is analyzed and classified. A tectonic diagram and a geomorphological matrix of the glacial field area were created. Locations were selected, three field seismic stations and one infrasonic station deployed in the nearest zone of the glacier under study. Temporary stations are carrying out a seismic and infrasonic monitoring and processing field data. Essential material on recorded events was collected from the study area. Maps of hypocenters and event hypocenter densities were constructed with sources within and outside the glacial field.
Based upon research undertaken for 4 tasks in 2025, the following outputs were obtained:
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of precipitation on the quality of strategic water resources from analysis of isotope ratios in surface and ground waters’.
A comparative analysis of the chemical and isotopic composition showed that in spring meltwater plays a major role in the formation of the hydrochemical regime of lakes causing mineralization to decrease. In summer and autumn, the content of dissolved substances is observed to increase and the isotopic composition to became heavier due to evaporative fractionation. In winter, a relative stability of indicators can be noted, probably related to subglacial chemical processes. Stable mineralization and a lighter isotopic composition are typical of the Irtysh riv. in spring due to the inflow of meltwater. Ground waters exhibit a stable chemical and isotopic composition, which indicates a recharge by the infiltration of meltwater and winter precipitation. The exception is borehole #2, where a decrease in mineralization in spring and a lightet isotopic composition is recorded in May. The analysis of the chemical composition revealed a regular change in the degree of water exchange vertically and spatially: from the active, precipitation-recharged regime in the vicinity of Lake Babatai to the evaporative-salinized and decelerated circulation regime in the vicinity of Lake Damanskoye. This reflects a natural hydrochemical zonation of the territory and proves that the chemical composition of ground waters is a trustworthy indicator of the water exchange direction and intensity, as well as the interaction between surface and underground components of the aquatic system. The presented data demonstrates a pronounced seasonal variability in the temperature and precipitation regime specific to the sharply continental climate of the East Kazakhstan. A temperature rise at the spring- and summertime is accompanied by increasing and more intense precipitation due to the progression of convective processes, while in autumn, a regular decrease is recorded both in temperatures and moisture exchange in the atmosphere.
Task: ‘Study of climate changes by radiocarbon dating’
With a view to study climate changes using the radiocarbon dating technqiue, an isotopic analysis of soil samples from forest ecosystems of the Beskaragai area of the Abai region and the Burabai area of the Akmola region was carried out. The concentration ratio values of radiocarbon (F14C), stable carbon isotopes (δ13C), radiocarbon and calibrated chronological ages for TOC (total organic carbon) and HA (humic acid) fractions were derived. The results show the presence of recent and ‘bomb carbon’ (F14C>1) in the soil layers, as well as ancient fractions of organic matter (F14C<1). Changes in the values of δ13C and F14C along the profile reflect the processes of carbon accumulation, decomposition, and stabilization that occurred in different periods of soil formation. The comparison of data on different ecosystems shows differences in the intensity of carbon exchange and the occurrence depth of stable humus fractions. The collected materials can serve as a basis for reconstructing the climatic conditions of soil formation and simulating the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the forest soils of Kazakhstan. The analysis of carbon isotope characteristics in the soils of Kazakhstan's forest ecosystems showed a relation between the age structure of organic matter and changes in global temperature recorded by NASA GISS data since the late 19th century. The findings prove that the dynamics of F14C and δ13C in soil profiles reflect both recent warming and past large climatic fluctuations. The recent horizons of all the survey areas demonstrate radiocarbon enrichment (F14C>1) and less negative values of δ13C, which points to proactively involved fresh organic matter and intensified carbon biotransformation processes under conditions of a rising temperature. This data is consistent with the observed positive temperature anomalies of the late 20th and early 21st century. In deeper layers of the profiles, ancient fractions of TOC and HA are recorded, whose ages match the climatic phases of the Medieval climatic optimum, the Little Ice Age and the ‘neoglacial’. Cold spells furthered the stabilization of carbon and its preservation in the form of hard-to-decompose compounds. Thus, recent warming increases the microbial activity and accelerates carbon metabolism. Cold spells in the past fostered the accumulation of stable forms of humus shaping a long-term carbon reserve. These regularities are of importance for predicting the carbon balance of soils and assessing the contribution of Kazakhstan's forest ecosystems to the global carbon cycle under conditions of ongoing climate warming.
Task: ‘Quantitative assessment of a carbon flux from the surfaces of regional soils as a result of CO2 gas exchange’.
CO2 emissions from the surfaces of regional light and dark chestnut soils artificially contaminated with nitrates at doses of 1, 3 and 5 MPC (on conversion to nitrogen) is quantitatively assessed in a long-term (12 months) simulated experiment. For 12 months of exposure, there were no statistically significant carbon emissions from light and dark chestnut soils contaminated with nitrates compared to reference samples (F=0.44; p<0.7 and F=0.21; p<0.9, respectively). Thus, nitrate pollution of up to 5 MPC does not affect CO2 emissions from the surfaces of light and dark chestnut soils. The assessment of the temperature sensitivity of regional light and dark chestnut soils in Kazakhstan in a simulated experiment with a short-term temperature rise of up to 50 °C, taking into account moisture conditions, did not reveal any significant shift in soil CO2 gas exchange towards an increase in CO2 emissions. For example, when thermostating wet samples of light and dark chestnut soil at 20, 30, 40 and 50° C, the mean values of CO2 emissions were 483, 467, 483, 498 and 534, 470, 470, 487 mmole/m-2 s-1, respectively. When thermostating dry samples of light and dark chestnut soil at 20, 30, 40 and 50 ° C, the mean values of CO2 emissions were 483, 467, 483, 498 and 534, 470, 470, 487 mmole/m-2 s-1, respectively. In summary, studies of CO2 emissions from the surfaces of regional light and dark chestnut soils in Kazakhstan have shown a high resistance of their CO2 gas exchange to the effects of chemical and temperature factors.
Task: ‘Assessment of the impact of climate change on the regime of icequakes reflecting the process of melting large-scale glaciers in the Tien Shan from seismic and infrasonic data.’.
The capabilities of remotely detecting events from glaciers in waveforms from the Makanchi, Karatau and the Makanchi infrasonic arrays by PMCC over more than a 20-year period are estimated. As a result of data processing and event localization, it was found that most of the hypocenters of seismic events with a magnitude of M ≥ 3.0 are confined to the top slopes of mountain ranges and ridges, but there are individual places where they are confined to the bottom slopes, as well as to hollows or second- and third-order talwegs, along which valley glaciers or even creeks and rivulets flow down from melting glaciers. Based upon processing of materials from a special network of stations in the near zone, a catalog of events was compiled involving 6,990 earthquakes of various nature. According to the catalog data on the near zone and the available catalogs of earthquakes over longer terms for Central Asia, the spatial and temporal regularities of the distribution of seismicity within the glacial field and its surroundings were studied. For the first time, the monitoring of glaciers using seismoacoustic techniques was arranged. Based on the comparison of signals identified, a concept of an equipment system was formed for the multiparametric registration of glacial events, and a work package was worked out to thoroughly select the installation sites of the stations. Changes were scrutinized in glacier areas from satellite images 2002 through 2023. The North and South Inylchek glaciers were delimited in detail both in valley and glacier recharge areas. Such efforts to break down glaciers into valley and recharge areas and study changes in their areas over a long while in a well-known region with huge reserves of mountain ice as sources of fresh water were taken for the first time. Changes in glacier areas such as reduction and growth are being studied in connection with variations in temperature and precipitation. A direct correlation between the reduction and growth of glaciers and the amount of precipitation can be noted. There are three periods for precipitation to increase and decrease and glacier areas to grow and be reduced, respectively. The general trend to decreasing glacier areas correlates with the one to the rising average annual temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing monitoring is recommended for a long while so that the basic regularities of the seismic regime of glacial events are precisely estimated, changes in spatio-temporal characteristics and climate changes related, as well as a growing threat of dangerous events associated with the destruction of glaciers possibly predicted.
Over the entire timeline of the program’s tasks, 7 (seven) articles were published in journals recommended by KOKNVO, 5 (five) articles in peer-reviewed scientific editions of the Program’s scientific line included in quartile 1 (one), 2 (two) and (or) 3 (three) by the impact factor in the Web of Science database and (or) having a CiteScore percentile in the Scopus database of at least 50 (fifty), 1 (one) monograph in a Kazakhstani publishing office, 3 (three) intellectual property items and 1 (one) utility model patent. Some of the results were presented at conferences and forums: VII International conference ‘Trigger effects in geosystems’ (RF), 39th General Assembly (GA) of the European Seismological Commission (Greece), V International Scientific Forum ‘Nuclear Sciences and Technologies’ (RK), XX International scientific conference of students, graduate students and scientists ‘Lomonosov – 2025’ (RK).